The Battle for the West Philippine Sea: Why the EU is Stepping Forward

On July 22, 2025, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House to reinforce economic and military ties between their two countries. The visit culminated in a high-profile agreement that introduced a 19% U.S. tariff on Philippine exports in exchange for zero tariffs on American vehicles and parts, certain agricultural products and pharmaceuticals entering the Philippines. While some critics argue that the Philippines is getting the shorter end of the stick in this trade arrangement, the reality is more nuanced: the Philippines managed to secure concessions similar to or slightly better than those granted to other Southeast Asian nations such as Vietnam and Indonesia, though it still fell short of the far more favorable terms negotiated by Japan. But beyond the trade negotiations, the more pressing development was the renewed emphasis on joint security. The two leaders committed to expanding the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), establishing new naval repair facilities in Palawan, and reaffirming that any attack on Philippine assets in the West Philippine Sea (WPS) would trigger American support under the Mutual Defense Treaty.

While these moves project strength, they also expose an emerging geopolitical gap: the long-term sustainability of U.S. leadership in Asia. As Washington becomes increasingly preoccupied with domestic challenges and global overstretch, Europe—especially the European Union—will have to prepare to take a more proactive stance in securing vital global commons, including the WPS.

Why the West Philippine Sea Matters Globally

The WPS, part of the broader South China Sea, is not merely a regional concern. It is a critical artery for international trade:

• Over 30% of the world’s shipping, valued at more than $3 trillion annually, passes through these waters.
• Key goods—from energy supplies to high-tech components—transit routes that connect East Asia with Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
• The seabed is believed to contain vast reserves of oil and natural gas, making it a major energy frontier.

For the EU, whose economic engine thrives on global commerce, any disruption in the WPS would create devastating ripple effects across its member states. France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy all rely on uninterrupted access through these lanes to sustain their export-heavy economies.

The U.S. as Present Guarantor—But for How Long?

For now, the U.S. remains the strongest military power in the Indo-Pacific and the principal guarantor of free access to the WPS. American naval operations, such as Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs), continue to challenge China’s expansive claims.

However, the sustainability of this leadership is in question. Economic strains, political polarization, and the growing appeal of isolationist policies suggest that America’s global commitments may continue to shrink. In a future where Washington withdraws, who ensures that vital sea lanes remain open?

Why the EU is Preparing to Secure the WPS

1. Trade Dependence: Nearly 40% of the EU’s external trade moves through the South China Sea. Control or disruption of this route by China would allow it to economically coerce Europe.
2. Strategic Credibility: If the EU seeks to become a global superpower, it must demonstrate the ability to project power and protect its interests far beyond its borders. Inaction in the WPS would reveal a lack of strategic autonomy.
3. Legal and Moral Leadership: The EU champions the rules-based international order, especially UNCLOS. Yielding to Chinese hegemony in the WPS would undermine its commitment to international law.
4. Asian Partnerships: Europe is deepening ties with Indo-Pacific countries, including Japan, India, and ASEAN states. Active involvement in ensuring freedom of navigation in the WPS will solidify its standing in the region.

Steps the EU Is Taking

At the recent 2025 EU Summit in Brussels, leaders agreed on a number of critical initiatives:

• Creation of a Permanent Indo-Pacific Naval Task Group, spearheaded by France, Germany, and Italy, with rotational patrols planned for 2026.
• Enhanced Military Cooperation with ASEAN nations, including maritime surveillance and joint training exercises.
• Strategic Investments in Defense Production and Blue-Water Naval Capabilities, to ensure operational reach in the Indo-Pacific.
• Intelligence-Sharing Agreements with Japan and the Philippines aimed at countering disinformation and tracking Chinese maritime movements.

These developments represent a significant shift in the EU’s global posture. While not yet capable of replacing the U.S., the EU is beginning to prepare for a world in which it may have to act independently.

East vs. West and the Philippines in the Middle

From a biblical standpoint, the rise of a European-centered global power is not unexpected. The Bible foresees a final world superpower described as a “beast” rising out of the sea (Revelation 13:1), a union of nations centered in Europe. As it rises, it will eventually clash with a coalition of eastern powers, including nations historically associated with “the kings of the east” (Revelation 16:12).

In such a scenario, the Philippines—geographically and strategically situated between China and the Western Pacific—would find itself at the intersection of a great geopolitical conflict. Its alliance with the U.S., and potentially with the EU in the future, makes it a key outpost in a looming confrontation between East and West.

A Call to Strategic Vigilance

The recent Marcos-Trump meeting underscores that the Philippines is not blind to the growing tensions in the West Philippine Sea. Yet the sustainability of American guarantees is not forever assured. The EU, slowly but surely, recognizes that its preparations for global leadership hinge on its willingness to secure the global commons.

The West Philippine Sea is a fulcrum of future power dynamics. The EU will have to ensure it plays a defining role in keeping it free—not only for the sake of trade and legal norms but to attain its goal of becoming a central actor on the world stage. The Philippines, meanwhile, will have to brace for the storms ahead.