Europe’s Shift in Arms Procurement: A Subtle Sign of Change

For decades, the defense relationship between the United States and Europe has been clear-cut: Europe bought American weapons, and Washington remained the uncontested leader of the Western alliance. That picture, however, is beginning to change.

The recent decision by Denmark to bypass the American Patriot missile system in favor of the European-made SAMP/T (New Generation) air defense system is the most visible example of this shift. Denmark also intends to rely on European suppliers for its medium-range air defense, considering systems like Germany’s IRIS-T, Norway’s NASAMS, and France’s VL MICA. Officials in Copenhagen cited delivery speed, affordability, and industrial benefits as reasons—but the symbolism is clear: Europe is increasingly willing to equip itself without defaulting to U.S. systems.

And Denmark is not alone.

• Germany is leading the European Sky Shield Initiative, which is pooling resources to expand the IRIS-T system across Europe.
• The Baltic States—Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia—are purchasing IRIS-T units in joint arrangements with Germany.
• Slovenia has also joined the Sky Shield program, relying on European suppliers rather than U.S. ones.
• Poland, while still buying U.S. Patriots, is investing heavily in the British-designed CAMM missile family, weaving European systems into its layered defense structure.
• On the ground, Czechia and Slovakia have turned to Swedish CV90 infantry fighting vehicles, and EU funds are pushing production of European artillery ammunition.
• Ukraine, while still dependent on U.S. armaments, is now producing a significant portion of the weapons it uses in its war against Russia. These include locally manufactured drones, artillery shells, and even missile systems. At the same time, Ukraine has received European-made weapons such as German Leopard tanks, French Caesar howitzers, and British Storm Shadow missiles, showing both its own production and Europe’s growing role in its defense.

None of this means Europe has abandoned the U.S. As of now, the United States still supplies the majority of Europe’s imported arms—especially in critical areas like fighter jets (the F-35 dominates sales) and strategic enablers. Yet, alongside those U.S. weapons, European nations are increasingly equipping themselves with homegrown systems that are largely interoperable with American platforms. It is not a clean break, but a diversification—a subtle hedge.

Why This Shift?

Several factors explain the trend:

1. Delivery and cost pressures: U.S. systems are often more expensive and slower to deliver than European alternatives.
2. Strategic autonomy: Europe wants the ability to defend itself without total reliance on American decision-making.
3. Industrial policy: Supporting European defense industries preserves jobs, technology, and sovereignty.
4. Political uncertainty: U.S. policy swings—especially under different administrations—make allies wary of putting all their eggs in one basket.

A Spiritual Dimension

Behind the headlines, however, lies a deeper story. The Bible tells us that God raises up nations and brings them down (Daniel 2:21). America long stood as the leader of the free world, providing the shield under which much of Europe prospered. But that leadership is eroding.

The quiet but real shift in Europe’s arms procurement is a symptom of this change. By relying more on each other, Europeans are learning to do without America. This is not merely economics or politics—it is part of God’s judgment on the United States. Scripture warns that when a nation turns away from Him, He will “break the pride of your power” (Leviticus 26:19). America’s military dominance has been a key expression of that power. Now we see signs of it slipping away.

A Marker of Something Larger

The choice of Denmark may seem like a technical procurement matter, but it is a marker of something larger. Europe is slowly but steadily becoming more self-reliant in arms production. The United States still supplies much—but the monopoly is gone, and the trend is growing.

In the months and years ahead, watch Europe’s defense market closely. What appears as procurement diversification is also a signal of shifting leadership in the Western world. As America declines, God is setting the stage for other powers to rise—just as the Bible foretells.