The recent arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte under a warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) marks a historic moment in global justice. The case has sparked widespread debate over accountability, sovereignty, and the reach of international law in prosecuting crimes against humanity. Whether Duterte will ultimately face trial, be convicted, or be acquitted remains uncertain, but one thing is undeniable: during his presidency, thousands of Filipinos were killed without due process.

Why Was Duterte Arrested?

Duterte’s arrest stems from allegations of crimes against humanity related to his administration’s infamous “war on drugs” (2016–2022). Under this campaign, thousands of suspected drug users and pushers were killed, often in what human rights organizations and independent investigations describe as extrajudicial executions. While Duterte and his administration have long defended the campaign as necessary for national security, critics argue that it led to rampant human rights violations.

The ICC’s case against Duterte is built on multiple factors:

• Command Responsibility: Under the Rome Statute, a leader can be held liable if they knew or should have known that subordinates were committing crimes and failed to prevent or punish them.
• Incitement to Violence: Duterte’s numerous public speeches encouraging law enforcers to kill drug offenders are being cited as evidence of direct incitement to violence.
• Patterns of Systematic Killings: Reports from the United Nations, Amnesty International, and Human Rights Watch indicate that the killings followed a structured pattern, suggesting a state-sanctioned policy rather than isolated incidents.

The Legal Process Following Duterte’s Arrest

Once arrested, Duterte will go through a series of legal proceedings before the ICC:

1. Transfer to The Hague – If the Philippine government cooperates, Duterte will be extradited to The Hague, Netherlands, where the ICC is based.
2. First Appearance Before the Pre-Trial Chamber – He will be informed of the charges and given the opportunity to respond.
3. Confirmation of Charges – The ICC prosecution will present its evidence, and judges will decide if there’s enough basis to proceed to a full trial.
4. Trial Phase – The trial will feature witness testimonies, forensic evidence, and legal arguments from both the prosecution and defense.
5. Judgment and Sentencing – If convicted, Duterte could face up to life imprisonment, though the ICC does not impose the death penalty.

Will Duterte Be Convicted? Examining the ICC’s Track Record

The ICC’s record on convicting high-profile leaders presents a mixed picture, with some cases leading to harsh sentences while others have resulted in acquittals. Among the notable convictions, Charles Taylor of Liberia was sentenced to 50 years for war crimes, and Bosco Ntaganda of the Democratic Republic of Congo received a 30-year sentence for similar crimes. These cases show that the ICC has successfully prosecuted individuals responsible for large-scale violence.

However, there have also been significant acquittals. Jean-Pierre Bemba, also from the Democratic Republic of Congo, had his conviction overturned due to insufficient evidence, while Laurent Gbagbo of Ivory Coast was acquitted after the prosecution failed to establish strong enough arguments.

For Duterte, the chances of conviction largely hinge on the strength of witness testimonies and evidence linking him directly to the extrajudicial killings that took place under his administration. If former police officers or government insiders come forward and testify against him, it would greatly strengthen the prosecution’s case. Additionally, if the ICC can prove that Duterte had direct knowledge and control over the anti-drug operations that led to these deaths, it would increase the likelihood of a conviction. Cooperation from the Philippine government in the trial process would also play a crucial role.

On the other hand, if key witnesses recant their statements or refuse to testify, it could significantly weaken the case. Duterte’s legal team is expected to argue that his speeches were merely political rhetoric rather than direct orders for extrajudicial killings. If the Philippine government obstructs the legal process or refuses to extradite him, the case could face substantial delays or even collapse altogether.

Given these factors, the probability of Duterte being convicted remains moderate, estimated between 40-60%. However, if his political allies manage to obstruct legal proceedings effectively, there remains a strong possibility that he may avoid trial entirely.

Beyond Duterte’s Fate: The Reality of the Drug War Victims

Regardless of whether Duterte faces trial, gets convicted, or is acquitted, the stark reality remains: thousands of people were killed without due process. Many of them were poor Filipinos, unable to defend themselves in court, denied the presumption of innocence. Families were torn apart, and many still seek justice for their loved ones. No legal outcome can bring back those who perished.

The Hope of True Justice in the Millennium

While human courts struggle to deliver justice, the Bible speaks of a future government where perfect justice will reign. Under the rule of Jesus Christ during the Millennium, there will be no wrongful executions, no corruption, and no impunity. Isaiah 9:7 describes this coming era:

“Of the increase of His government and peace there shall be no end, upon the throne of David, and upon His kingdom, to order it, and to establish it with judgment and with justice from henceforth even forever.”

Unlike in today’s world, where justice is flawed and selective, the Kingdom of God will establish true righteousness. As Zechariah 14:9 states:

“And the Lord shall be king over all the earth: in that day shall there be one Lord, and His name one.”

No innocent person will be unjustly killed, and every crime will be judged fairly.

Furthermore, those who perished under Duterte’s drug war—many of whom were denied the chance to defend themselves—will not remain forgotten. The Bible promises a resurrection, where they will live again and finally experience true justice under a perfect government. As Revelation 20:12 states, the dead will be raised and judged righteously according to their deeds. In contrast to the flawed justice systems of today, God’s government will provide fairness, mercy, and the opportunity for redemption.

As we watch the unfolding events surrounding Duterte’s arrest and potential trial, it will help for us remember that ultimate justice belongs to God’s Kingdom, and that is the justice all mankind long for.